The Fourth Turning Is Here
Neil Howe's remarkable new book.
I’ve spent the past couple of weeks immersed in Neil Howe’s new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, in order to prepare for a conversation with Neil and with Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory.
The conversation took place yesterday and will be released on Saturday on Cycles TV, the YouTube channel for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. (If you’re not subscribed to Cycles TV yet, please subscribe now.)
The conversation did not disappoint. Neil and Ben are both remarkable, keen, and articulate observers of our contemporary times. It was a joy to speak with them. I hope we will get to do it again.
I’m not going to recount the interview here as it speaks for itself. I do, however, wish to share a couple of my own takeaways.
First of all, Neil’s book is remarkable. I highly recommend it. Before reading it, I thought that the idea of the fourth turning was a neat little popular idea dreamt up by Neil and his now deceased colleague William Strauss. After reading Neil’s new book, I understand that his thesis is rooted in substantial scholarship and the work of many predecessors. The book persuaded me that fourth turnings are real and that we are indeed in the midst of one now.
I can see how some might be surprised that I would have ever doubted that a fourth turning is here given my involvement with cycles and my belief that we are in the midst of multiple crises.
I can only say that my lingering reluctance to fully embrace the idea of the fourth turning was rooted in a couple of legitimate hesitations. I didn’t want to be a pessimist, and I didn’t want to be a fearmonger.
I came away from reading Neil’s book, and from my conversation with Neil and Ben, realizing that embracing the reality of the fourth turning is neither pessimistic nor fearful.
There just is no doubt that we are in the midst of multiple crises today. Far from being pessimistic or fearful, facing up to that reality is an act of optimism and hope.
It’s optimistic because we can find solutions and we do have agency. It’s hopeful because better times and better community do lie on the other side of the crisis.
Of course, it is uncomfortable and scary to think about crisis and conflict. What’s even scarier, however, is the thought of sticking our heads in the sand and wishing it would just go away and not doing anything to prepare. That is truly a recipe for being swept out to sea.
We are living in difficult times, and things are likely to get worse before they get better. We’ve been living beyond our means and resting on our laurels for too long now, and we will all have to learn to do more with less.
We all know, however, that oftentimes less is more. We do need to let go of some things, and I believe that we will eventually look back on those things and find that they weren’t worth carrying around with us in the first place.
The fourth turning is here. It will involve sacrifice and courage from all of us in order to get through it. The sooner we can decide in earnest what we’re OK giving up and what we must fight for, the sooner we can all get through this.
We all have agency here. At a minimum we have agency in choosing how we respond. My conversation with Neil and Ben reminded me that I choose to respond with optimism and hope translated into action.
Fight the noise,
Dr. Richard Smith